Skip to main content
patrickWeb
Google


Web
patrickweb.com



Disclosures

Media

daily  Sunday, September 28, 2008

NASA 50th


Nsaturn V taking offThere are more than a billion Internet users in the world and tens of billions of web pages. Things were quite different in 1994 when I first showed the world wide web to the senior management team of IBM. Most of the web sites at that time were government or education related and my favorite back then was NASA which just recently celebrated it's 50th Anniversary.

Not sure who had the first web site but Internet domains began to be registered in 1985. IBM.com was #11 -- registered in March of 1986. NASA was not among the first 100 but when they launched their web site in the 1990's they had an awesome amount of content. In fact the United States government has set a good example of using the Internet effectively. (See "The Top Twenty Essential US Government Web Sites").

Unfortunately, there was no web when NASA started back in the 1950's but the anniversary web site has captured the history very well. An animated robot gives a brief intro on how to navigate the site and you get treated to a few tunes from the 1950s (such as "Tutti Frutti") and you can then move through the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s and enjoy a lot of multimedia.

Aside from many projects with the shuttle, Mars Rover, Phoenix Lander, the Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes, NanoSatellites, and countless other exciting areas of exploration, NASA is about to acquire a new supercomputer cluster. NASA partner IBM Corporation will be building an iDataPlex cluster system which will combine 1,024 Intel Xeon quad-core processors with Nasa's existing Discover computing cluster. The combined system will run at a top speed of 67 teraflops -- 67 trillion calculations per second. This will put it well up in the TOP500 List. The new iDataPlex system is made by supercomputer leader Big Blue but is also part of the company's "'Big Green" initiative. The supercomputer cluster will be running at 40 per cent of the power of predecessors but provide five times the computing power.

The new NASA/IBM system is called the "Discover Cluster" and will be used primarily for modeling of the 21st century climate and analyzing the effects of solar activity on the planet.

Aviation, IBM, Media September 28, 2008 11:55 AM

 

daily  Sunday, September 14, 2008

Mediazone


RugbyThe 4:45 AM departure from home last Sunday was not a barrel of fun but the flight to San Francisco was uneventful and was followed by a visit with Mediazone in Palo Alto where they were having a management conference.

Mediazone is an extremely interesting company that I was not previously familiar with. They are based in Palo Alto but are owned by a company called Naspers -- a $2.6 billion media giant in South Africa (a part of the world I had been fortunate enough to visit in March). Mediazone creates and operates a set of targeted social media destinations, centered on passionate audience interests that incorporate a rich set of video, audio, text, community and interactive user controls.

An example would be their RugbyZone -- if you like Rugby you would surely love RugbyZone. This is just one of Mediazone's highly targeted segments of content. They don't try to be all things to all people but they do go very deep in their specific "vertical" segments such as Rugby, Motorcross, Wimbledon Live, and IndyCar. I have always believed that other than perhaps Google, specialized web sites have the most to offer. Ten years ago I was an advisory board member at space.com and we found tremendous interest on the part of "space junkies". People who care about a narrow segment tend to be deeply interested. They are willing to register and participate in the community of users and generate content themselves. The challenge is how to make money at facilitating the community and providing high-value content.

The answer is elusive and nobody has cracked the code just yet. The Wall Street Journal has a subscription model where subscribers pay $99 per year. They have unique content and a broad array of tools and content creditability. Most sites are not able to command such a fee. The dominant model today is advertising wherein sites are able to get a premium fee from the advertisers who want to reach a targeted audience. Someone selling rugby shoes is presumably willing to pay more for an ad at RugbyZone than for an ad at a "horizontal" site which may have more visitors but not the narrow interest. Another model is Weather Underground. For an annual fee of $10 you get a version of the site that has much less advertising. In other words you pay to not get advertising. I don't claim to have the answer but my advice on the topic is always the same -- offer great service and offer choices. A membership site might charge $69 per year for a standard subscription, $89, for an "ad free" version, and $29 for subscribers who are willing to accept unlimited advertising and provide profile information about their desires. When combined with great service, careful listening to the feedback, trying new models, and iterating quickly the result will be the highest possible odds of finding the right model.

On from Palo Alto to San Francisco on Southwest (possibly the best airline in operation in the states) to San Diego to join the opening reception at Demo.

Conferences, Internet Technology, Media, Travels September 14, 2008 06:52 PM

 

daily  Saturday, July 12, 2008

How To Remove AOL Advertising - Part 2


Privacy pleaseA number of readers have sent me feedback about the AOL advertising trailer in their email. One person was extremely happy and had been trying to get rid of the ads for a very long time. His response to the blog post was "Bless you!". Not sure if deserves a blessing but a number of people are really thankful to get rid of the obnoxious ads from the email they send. Two people told me that the link to remove the trailer did not work. I can't explain why it works for some and not for others. The only suggestion I can make is that if you are now aware of what is going on and want to stop it then try the link one more time. If it doesn't work then call AOL support and ask them to remove the trailer for you.

Media, Personal Computing July 12, 2008 10:28 AM

 

daily  Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Supernova 2008 - Part 4


TelevisionThe "Reconstructed media" session was about the future of TV. The panelists were from YouTube, Sevenload, and Current TV. All three see TV -- as we know it -- as a thing of the past. Current.tv is a bottoms up media approach where "you make the news" by voting on, commenting on, or submitting a story. Part of the business model change is being driven by the fact that TV today is very inefficient as an advertising channel. According to one of the speakers, 99% of advertising dollars are wasted because people either don't watch it or watch it but are not in the market for whatever is being advertised.All three are determined to "reconstruct" -- aka blow-up -- the current model of television.

I wrote a story here called "The Future of Advertising" in October 2006. I was pretty negative about TV advertising and now I am even more so. In theory you can just record everything but even then it is annoying to have to fast forward through the ads and sometimes have to backup and replay and then forward again to get what you want. The advertisements are mostly insulting to one's intelligence. There are no insights into anything and they grate on people's nerves. Honestly, I have to say that most of the ads are obnoxious -- as bad as spam. The shotgun blast ads aren't fraudulent but they add no value to our lives. Zero. Do we need broadcast television to tell us the latest interest rate at ditech.com or to be reminded four times per hour that Scottrade is "all about value" or to be constantly told to ask our doctor about this pill or that pill? The bottom line is that most of us don't rely on the TV as a source of ideas for things we need. There may be some people that actually enjoy advertisements. That is ok, but the rest of us want to "opt out".

When it comes to news, sometimes it is hard to get on TV. Odds are that you can flip through a half-dozen cable news channels and find no news. Just ads. TvNewsLies.org claims that CNN = “Contains No News”. After eliminating ads, ads about the news, tabloids, and other chaff, one hour of CNN "Yields Less Than 5 Minutes of News". My preferred news source is news.google.com which I have been using for years. It is ad supported but it is ads that don't get in your face. You can drill deeply into the news and if you don't like one source's point of view you can easily get another. This contrasts with "So and so made a statement today about the oil situation and you won't believe what he said". Parenthetically, and we are not going to tell you what he said until you listen to three minutes of irrelevant advertising. At this point in e-tirement I pretty much know what things I need or want and if I don't know then I know how to find things. Broadcast advertising is dead. They just have not admitted it yet. The next phase will be situational ads where the actors in movies will be extolling products and services. It will likely be transparent and I am not looking forward to it.

Many of the startup companies and large amounts of venture capital are focused on how to "reach" us. Their favorite word is CPM, the cost per thousand advertising page impressions. They truly want to intrude on us. They want us to watch a video clip before we can watch the video clip link we clicked on. Forbes magazine prints "Your statement of benefits" on envelopes. This is designed to make you think the envelope contains health insurance or mutual fund information. It actually includes a subscription statement so that you can get the benefit of paying for their magazine. They can't wait to strike deals with AT&T and Verizon to put ads on our cell phones.

Is there no end? The most optimistic sign lies in social networking. As much as I do not like advertising in my face, I would not mind seeing a link to a book that my friends have read, or learn about interesting places they have been, or wines, or concerts, and other favorites. Advertiser support of social networking has the potential to actually be of value. I hope so, because the tolerance level for traditional TV and Internet advertising is at the limit for many of us. More on social networking coming up.

Conferences, Favorites, Media July 1, 2008 03:19 PM

 

daily  Monday, June 30, 2008

MP3 for Sale


Musical recordsThe shift to digital music is well underway, but -- believe it or not -- the total digital music business is still only about 15% of total music sales. Physical recordings accounted for 82% of the $20 billion in total recorded music sales last year. Needless to say, the mix is shifting. Apple announced that it has now sold 5 billion tracks of music.

The good news for consumers is that competition is increasing and we are getting more and more choices. Single track downloads grew 53% last year and Apple is not the only contender. I have been buying music lately from Amazon. Their music is pure MP3 and has no digital rights management. The first time you visit you download a free music player. From then on it is really easy. Yesterday I found some excellent Doo Wop albums. I bought the music with one-click and it was automatically downloaded to iTunes. I then updated the iTunes Doo Wop smartlist. The list automatically updates to a random selection one gigabyte in size which I then copied to an SD card which I then put in the MP3 player on the Trike. The price is 89 cents per track with competitive album pricing. They also have a Special Deals Program.

Related links
bullet Other music related patrickWeb stories


Media, Motorcycles, Music June 30, 2008 10:38 AM

 

daily  Monday, June 9, 2008

Roku


TelevisionAbout fifteen years ago one of my children worked at Blockbuster. One day I told him that Bockbuster would be history because people would be downloading their movies from the Internet. Yeah, right Dad. Ok, I was a bit ahead of my time. In the intervening years there have been numerous companies started to offer various ways to get movies via the Net but none have gotten much traction. The most successful innovation has been Netflix which offers 100,000 movies and an incredibly efficient distribution system for DVDs. The barriers to a downloading or streaming approach have included technology cost, inadequate bandwidth, complexity, device incompatibilities, and intellectual property concerns.

Then along came the Netflix Roku. The snazzy new device may be like manna from heaven for movie lovers. I have had previous experience with Roku. A few years ago I installed a Roku box for pictures. It enables the display of digital pictures on any TV in the house via the home local area network and can be a nice thing at holiday time. The Roku for Netflix movies is a fraction of the size and allows watching up to 10,000 movies or TV episodes on any TV in the house, if you have a video distribution system, or if you don't then you can use the Roku with the TV of your choice -- home theatre, HD, non-HD, any TV. I took the Roku out of the box, plugged in the power supply, and connected the cables to the video jacks. You then need to connect the Roku to the Internet. You can either plug it into your home LAN or connect via WiFi. The hookup took about three minutes. The TV then displays a code which you enter at netflix.com and you are then activated. A new tab is added to your account at Netflix labeled "Watch Instantly". You make a selection and it shows up on the Roku screen on your TV. You push the play button on the Roku remote and the movie starts streaming. I was watching a movie within five minutes of taking the Roku out of the box.

Streaming is different than downloading. There is no hard drive on the Roku. The movie comes from a server at Netflix directly to the Roku. Some buffering obviously takes place as I detected no jitters or pixelation. I was quite impressed with the quality. Looks like a DVD. Does this mean the end of DVDs? Yes, but it will take quite a while. Music is shifting to digital but there are still a lot of CDs sold. The transition for DVDs will take longer for a number of reasons. Streaming requires a stable and reliable one million bit per second connection. In theory, any DSL or Cable Internet provider should be able to provide that but in practice it is spotty. The trend is certainly in the right direction. HD streaming is not yet available but surely it will soon. That will require more bandwidth. So far only 10% of the Netflix collection is available for streaming. Not sure how fast they will be able to convert the rest.

The pricing is good. If you already subscribe to Netflix under any plan of $9.99 per month or more then you get unlimited streaming at no extra cost. The Roku unit is $99 plus shipping. Movies and TV episodes are selected via the web site just like picking a DVD. All things considered, I think Netflix and Roku hit a home run. Not perfect but you can see the beginning of the end of DVDs.

Gadgets, Home Automation, Media, Personal Computing, WiFi June 9, 2008 06:00 PM

 

daily  Thursday, May 15, 2008

The World in 2050


BrainThe flight to Los Angeles last week was long but on schedule and it provided some time to make a dent in reading World Without End (sequel to The Pillars of the Earth) by Ken Follett on the Kindle. Holding the 10-once e-reader is a joy and the battery lasted throughout the six hour flight. The physical book -- 1,024 pages -- would not be a joy to hold for hours.

The purpose of the trip was to attend IBM's Business Partner Leadership Conference. The event was attended by roughly 1,000 business partners, IBM executives, members of the press, and information technology analysts. See "IBM Happenings - May 2008" for a list of some of the announcements made by IBM during the meeting. At the end of the first day was a special event at the University of California School of Cinematic Arts. The invitation only event included 100 or so analysts, members of the press, faculty members and students. IBM and USC had been holding discussions to map out a collaboration between some of the most creative minds in Hollywood with some of IBM's top scientists. Having known some of them for years I was really pleased with they selected. The moderator was Dr. Bill Pulleyblank, mathematician, computer scientist and predictive analysis expert. Bill is known for having managed a project in which a supercomputer named Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in a six game rematch. The panelists were all quite distinguished. Don Eigler, IBM Fellow, was the first ever to precisely manipulate individual atoms and spelling the word "I B M". Jeff Jonas, IBM Distinguished Engineer, expert in security and privacy, created much of the technology used in capturing criminals in Vegas casinos. Sharon Nunes, Head of the Energy and Environment business at IBM is a research expert in materials science and is working on numerous projects to save the environment. Last but not least was Ajay Royyuru, who leads IBM Research's computational biology team and IBM's liaison to the National Geographic Genographic project. Ajay participated on a past panel which I had the honor to moderate at Demo.

The breadth and depth of the panel could have kept the audience spellbound for quite a few hours. Will the future be like 2001: A Space Odyssey, Back to the Future, Incredible Journey or Star Wars? How can scientists help filmmakers create prescient depictions of the future?

Much of the discussion revolved around the merger of biology and systems. Some of the breakthroughs discussed included using nanotechnology to assure the availability of clean drinking water everywhere on the planet, self-healing spinal cords, and life span stretching well past the century mark? The human genome has been mapped but that is just the beginning. In effect the mapping provides the parts list of the human bodies. The next phase of research is to figure out what all those parts do and how they fit together. Not only will regenerating entire body parts be possible but embedded processors under our skin will make it possible to gain significant human augmentation of our capabilities. A project in Europe called Blue Brain is using IBM supercomputing technology to built a simulation model of the human brain. This is a very big undertaking but someday it could lead to curing some of the most dreaded diseases that afflict our societies.

Computer processing is already awesome but we haven't seen anything yet. A Mini Cooper has more computing power than Apollo 13 had. At the exponential pace of growth of computing capacity we may actually reach the Singularity in the next couple of decades.

Security and privacy are obviously crucial elements to the research agenda. We will be able to have an embedded super-PDA that can record every conversation you hear or say during a lifetime. Existing databases make it possible to specifically identify a person by only knowing their zip date of birth and gender. So much for witness protection programs. The good news is that ubiquitous sensors can make the world is less dangerous place. Yes, the government can watch the people, but the people can watch the government too.

I think we are very fortunate that IBM focuses vast sums of money and thousands of top notch people on solving some of the tougher global problems. There is money in some of it and long term business value is created but along the way societies around the world benefit greatly from IBM's work toward the greater good. Take a look at the most recent report on this to get an idea.

As for film making, I learned a lot in talking with some graduate students at the reception. They are all hoping to be as successful as Steven Spielberg, and no doubt some will. The surprising thing I learned is that the best quality movies are still captured on cellulose acetate based film. It is rare these days to see a professional photographer use anything other than a digital camera and apparently with wide angle, high contrast movie making, the industry is not quite there. Consensus was that it would be all digital within five years. Computers already play a huge role (no pun intended) in film making either for augmentation of scenes or for creating the very characters of the movie.

Conferences, IBM, Internet Technology, Media, People May 15, 2008 11:21 AM

 

daily  Sunday, May 4, 2008

Not a Good Fit


FriendsI have to admit that I am not surprised that the Microsoft - Yahoo! deal fell through -- in fact I thought it would. It is not the issue $33 per share or $37 per share. The issue is a mismatch in culture. I remember when Jerry Yang and David Filo, both Ph.D. candidates in Electrical Engineering at Stanford University, received an award at Internet World in 1994. They had converted their student hobby into a business that went on to have a major impact on the growth of the Internet.

"Jerry and David's Guide to the World Wide Web" became Yahoo! -- an acronym for "Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle" but Filo and Yang also claim they also selected the name because they liked the general definition of a yahoo: "rude, unsophisticated, uncouth." The Yahoo! web site ran on Yang's student workstation, "Akebono," and Filo's computer, "Konishiki" - both named after legendary sumo wrestlers. I don't know for certain but I would bet anything these were both Unix systems. I also suspect that most of their development since the early days has been with Unix or Linux and certainly a lot of open source software in conjunction with the proprietary innovations they have created.

Microsoft has a lot of money and a lot of really smart people but the culture is different. Seems reasonable to assume that MSN was built on Microsoft's software -- if not then that is another story. MSN and Hotmail do not have the best reputation -- at least with those close to the Internet. Some would say Microsoft had sought to subsume the Internet in the early days while Yahoo has consistently embraced the Internet from day one. Microsoft has the reputation for being a place where workers toil individually while Yahoo has been is a Silicon Valley archetype where employees tend to work collaboratively.

The bottom line is that Microsoft and Yahoo! are both successful in their own ways but arguably they are oil and water. Merging them might make sense to the financial analysts but it makes no sense to many observers. If they were to come together financially it would take a decade to fully integrate the two to gain the benefits that would be expected. It may not be possible.

One thing is for sure. The beneficiaries of the failed merger will be the lawyers who will take many millions of dollars from both company's shareholders to sue and defend the failure to buy or sell.

Internet Technology, Media, People May 4, 2008 06:34 PM

 

daily  Saturday, January 26, 2008

Music Sales


PatentsTwo years ago I was confident that it would happen -- more than $1 Billion in sales of digital music for 2005. This was triple the year before. For 2007, the number rose to $3B and represented 15% of total music sales up from less than 1% in 2003. People are willing to pay for music if it is offered to them in a contemporary way -- i.e. digital. Single track downloads, the most popular digital music format, grew by 53% to 1.7 billion. iTunes is the giant but there are more than 500 legitimate digital music services around the world offering more than 6 million selections. It goes without saying that sales of music CD's continues to fall sharply.

In spite of the rapid growth, digital music still represents just 15% of the total music business (compared to 7% for newspapers, 3% for films, and 2% for books). The shift to a predominantly digital music industry is inevitable but there are some impediments. There is a non-trivial amount of piracy through various peer-to-peer services. It will take time to change the habits and attitudes of those who do not respect the legitimate need of musicians to make a living and be compensated for their creations and performances.

The other issue is lack of interoperability between services and devices. Apple and Sony and others offer proprietary and incompatible formats. There are dozens of formats to compress music and make it more efficient to store and distribute over the Internet. MP3 is not the best but it has won the war. VHS wasn't the best format for movies on tape but it dominated. Once a certain critical mass is reached it is hard to reverse. Apple is an exception, so far, and has shown that it can impose a proprietary format and by implementing it in an elegant fashion (iTunes) with devices that are equally elegant (iPods) that it can capture dominant market share. Over time people will demand more compatibility. If we purchase music it is reasonable to assume that we should be able to play that music on any device in our house, in the car, or on a trike.

The industry group that reports the data on music sales and monitors (fights) piracy calls itself the "International Federation of the Phonographic Industry". Does that give us a clue that they are not keeping up with the times?

Related links
bullet Other patrickweb stories about music

Gadgets, Media, Motorcycles, Music January 26, 2008 05:45 PM

 

daily  Saturday, January 12, 2008

Backup To The Rescue


ScreamThe ThinkPad T60p had been acting strangely for a few weeks and I had a hunch it was going to crash. Unfortunately, it did. I called Lenovo support at 6PM Monday night and they determined that the problem was the "motherboard" needed replaced. The shipping carton arrived on Tuesday, they received the ThinkPad in Memphis on Wednesday and I received the repaired unit on Thursday morning. Nothing short of remarkable customer service. That is the good news.

The bad news is that I continue to learn more about the nuances of backup and "recovery". I should not still be learning after all these years. I suspect I am not alone. There are a number of stories about "backup" here in the blog. I don't claim to be the master of backup but I do take it very seriously. The moral of this story is to take recovery as seriously as backup. This story is a little bit more technical than usual stories but I hope it is helpful. If you are interested, please read on.

Internet Technology, Media, On Demand, Personal Computing January 12, 2008 11:36 AM

 

daily  Sunday, November 25, 2007

One Laptop Per Child


Laptop XOThere will be millions of iPhones, Casio cameras, and other electronic gifts given this holiday season. If you want to give the gift of a lifetime and get satisfaction that you are helping improve the world, then consider buying a Laptop XO. For the price of an Amazon Kindle, you can be part of a really big idea. Originated at MIT, One Laptop Per Child, aims to put computers in the hands of millions of children in developing countries. "One learning child. One connected child. One laptop at a time".

The OLPC laptop has been in development for years but is now becoming a reality. Manufacturing has started and orders are being taken online between now and yearend. For $399, get a laptop for yourself -- or a lucky child you may know -- and one will also be given to a less fortunate child in Cambodia, Greece, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Uruguay, or other participating countries. (The countries themselves are buying XO's -- Nigeria ordered one million of them). The two-for-one deal includes a full year of T-Mobile Hotspot WiFi service.

The XO has quite an impressive set of features and functions. The design optimizes power usage. The Internet connectivity is by WiFi but it also uses wireless mesh networking. This means that each XO acts as a wireless access point in a peer-to-peer fashion sharing connectivity with a nearby XO. The software is all open source and free including Linux, a web browser, word processor, email, audio and video player, and a very clever graphical user interface.

I hope large numbers of people, companies, and foundations participate in the limited time offer and that many millions of children will benefit. As an individual, the T-Mobile WiFi subscription for a year plus the $200 tax deduction for the donated laptop, it is hard to go wrong. Visit LaptopGiving.org during the holidays and you can make a difference.

Internet Technology, Media, Mobile, People, Personal Computing, Public Policy, WiFi November 25, 2007 10:56 AM

 

daily  Wednesday, November 14, 2007

the greaterIBM connection


CactusOne of the many innovations Sam Palmisano has spearheaded at IBM is the idea of reaching out to "alumni". The first initiative was a few years ago when he hosted a reception for a group of former executives of the company. A few were retired but most were in senior positions in other companies. That was just the beginning and now the idea of reaching out has been expanded -- big time. The number of past and present IBMers is probably close to a million people. Establishing communications with such a huge base can be nothing but a good thing for the company.

When I left engineering school and joined IBM in 1967, it was common to look for a job at a company and expect to stay there your entire career. Nobody thinks that way anymore. If you tell someone you were with a company for decades, they might ask "what's the matter, couldn't you find any other jobs?". Another change is that in the old days if someone left the company they were considered a traitor and barred from coming back. Today, there are many executives that left the company at some point, got some experience at one or more other companies, and then brought that experience back into IBM. Some have come and gone multiple times. The turnover has strengthened the company.

PeopleAnd now we have social networks. In the early stages there was a perception that social networking meant eleven year-old girls on MySpace. Now businesses are realizing that it is more likely forty or fifty year-old business people on Facebook and Xing and LinkedIn and Plaxo Pulse. The Internet has enabled everyone to be connected to everyone. Whether it is reading blogs, posting to wikis, updating status on Facebook, or making new connections through viral invitations, it is clear that a big company like IBM has a lot to gain by "connecting" past, present, and future IBMers to each other and with the company. IBM calls it "the greaterIBM connection". On Monday evening the company hosted a greaterIBM reception at the Metrazur at Grand Central Station in New York. More than four hundred attended. It was good to reconnect with some colleagues I had not seen for quite a few years.

Business ConferenceWill social networking payoff in business terms? Nobody knows for sure but in my opinion it is certain -- as soon as we see the New York Times run a front page story that social networking is a fad, in trouble or peaking out we will have confirmation that success is a sure thing. A short term inhibitor is that there are so many different social networks. As web standards evolve I am confident that we will have a world where people will create one profile and then be able to decide which part of their profile is accessible in which networks.

IBM sees the potential and is investing the time and resources to build a large and active network. The possibilities are endless -- collaboration on projects, networking to hire or get hired, crafting deals, referrals to and from IBM and its business partners. As a bonus, social networking is fun and good for morale. I look forward to continuing to be a part of the greaterIBM connection as it evolves. Upon e-tirement in 2001 after nearly four decades at IBM, I don't really feel like I left anyway! The stories that I have been writing since 1998 over at the patrickWeb blog fall into a number of categories. One section is devoted to "IBM Happenings". I am sure I will also be writing and linking at the greaterIBM connection along with others. Cross linking will increase the overall "connectedness". That's what the web is all about. I am really proud that IBM is taking networking and the blogosphere so seriously.

Related links
bullet the greaterIBM connection

bullet Greater IBM Wiki

IBM, Internet Technology, Media, People November 14, 2007 06:17 PM

 

daily  Monday, November 6, 2006

The Chisel


ChiselThe AOL Instant Messenger has been a part of my daily life for quite a few years. It has been a very effective tool for communicating with family members, friends, and colleagues around the world. This past weekend it was necessary to install the latest version of AIM as I migrated to a new ThinkPad T60p. I quickly became aware of the customization of AIM that I had done previously and now had to do again. Although extremely useful for instant messaging, the initial installation of AIM bombards you with advertising. Since AIM is "free" they have a right to advertise but in my opinion, as I said in "The Future of Advertising", users should get a choice. Some would rather pay a modest monthly fee than be hammered with ads.

The most insidious part of the AIM advertising relies on software from Viewpoint. The Viewpoint software gets installed on your system as a "by-product" of installing AIM. You don't get asked if you want it and you don't get told you have it, but when you start AIM you may see and hear rap music blaring from your system. It comes from Viewpoint. The company says they have "highly integrated online marketing solutions" which "extend a message across the web quickly, easily and with results that speak for themselves". Viewpoint says their "Internet Marketing Technology (IMT)" is "an amazing platform" that brings together Viewpoint's technologies to deliver "the most visually powerful, immersive and engaging rich media applications on the web". In fact it is so "amazing" that it is hard to get rid of. I tried to uninstall it and it required a lot of steps and re-boots to do the job. Viewpoint is so embedded that it took awhile to figure out what it was and where it was. I would call it spam.

Marketers are becoming desperate. They will chisel into your system, install things without asking you, and then use it to blast you with things you don't want. The Internet is about choice. Web sites such as Google, Amazon, eBay, and countless others take that seriously. It is often the "old media" companies such as Time Warner and Forbes that seem to put their goals for advertising in front of their goals to deliver what consumers want. In the long run that is a losing strategy.

Related links
bullet The Future of Advertising

Media November 6, 2006 09:55 AM

 

daily  Monday, October 16, 2006

The Future of Advertising


TelevisionThe title may sound presumptuous since I am not an advertising expert. However, from a consumer point of view, I suspect my views may be shared by many of my friends, colleagues, and readers. Let's start with television and then consider the web. There are very big differences.

The convergence of the PC and TV has been exaggerated -- so far. Yes, there are some interesting ways to watch TV on your PC or surf the web on your TV but, at least for the immediate future, the PC is something we use at our desk or lap and the TV is more of an entertainment center. (Note: when not in the home, the handheld will be come dominant -- that is another story). High definition TV is great for enjoying a DVD or a HD broadcast. The PC is the place I go to do email, do some research, make purchases, read or write, and read the news. Isn't the TV our main for source for news? Increasingly not.

On days that I am not traveling to board meetings or conferences, I like to exercise. The recumbent bike and elliptical cross-trainer make good perches from which to watch cable TV news. If I am not watching a previously recorded news program -- and I do record several per day -- it is hard to get any news. The official data will show somewhere between 15 and 20 minutes per hour as being advertising. During the day it is closer to 20. That means one out of three minutes is advertising. You can flip between a half dozen news shows and find no news. If you subtract the news channel self-promotions, details on the latest deranged family member who has done something horrible, tabloid stories, and news about the news, then what you have left is a small fraction of an hour -- some critics say slightly less than five minutes per hour of real news. Some people say CNN means "contains no news" and that when FOX says "your station for news" they really mean "your station for advertising". For years, Netflix has been my way to watch movies, but the other night I was watching a movie where there was no digital video recorder or DVD player. The movie was interrupted every ten minutes with 10-12 advertisements.

The advertisements are mostly insulting to one's intelligence. There are no insights into anything and they grate on people's nerves. Honestly, I have to say that most of the ads are obnoxious -- as bad as spam. The shotgun blast ads aren't fraudulent but they add no value to our lives. Zero. Do we need broadcast television to tell us the latest interest rate at ditech.com or to be reminded four times per hour that Scottrade is "all about value" or to be constantly told to ask our doctor about this pill or that pill? The bottom line is that most of us don't rely on the TV as a source of ideas for things we need. There may be some people that actually enjoy advertisements. That is ok, but the rest of us want to "opt out".

Digital video recorders such as TiVo are a step in the right direction. If you want to watch a 7:00 PM news program, you can record it and then start watching it at 7:20 and not miss a thing. When it comes to movies, some people say they use the ads for biological and nourishment breaks, but do we need that every ten minutes? Yes, the premium cable movie channels are expensive, but millions of people would rather pay the monthly fee and be able to watch a movie from beginning to end without irrelevant ads droning at them. The most watched TV show ever is "The Sopranos". I am not commenting on the content of the program -- just on the business model. Although it's available in only a third of American homes, approximately 10 million viewers per week actually paid to watch it. There was no advertising. This is why the percentage of time people spend in front of TV's watching DVD's and subscription based programming will continue to climb.

Meanwhile the Internet is giving us what we want -- control over what we watch and when we watch it. Youtube is the tip of the iceberg. Search based advertising is booming because it is relevant to what we are searching for. It puts us in control. I have been using Weather Underground (the first Internet weather service) since 1995. The thing I like the most is that members -- at a cost of $10 per year -- get no ads. No banners, dancing bears, flashing action bars, or pop-ups that cover the weather. A weather site that has just weather. What a concept. When it comes to news, my source for years has been Google News. The headlines are based on what people are reading. Sometimes a top story is from the New York Times, sometimes it is from Al Jazeera, or a newspaper site in Houston, Philadelphia, or many other places. I feel like I am getting a wide variety of coverage and opinions and not just what the "local" paper has to say.

The Internet has always been about "Power to the People" and the people are sending lots of signals about advertising. They don't like it. They want "options, preferences, no ads" built into their viewing experience. Meanwhile, content executives are looking for even more ways to get in our face, send text messages to our mobile phones, and get into our instant messages and blogs. They have the future of advertising all wrong. Companies have to market their goods and services, but the model has to change. Sponsoring sports events and getting products used by actors in movies are fine but most important is to build great web sites and customer support that surpass our expectations. That is where the investments should be made. The result will be that bloggers and good old fashioned word of mouth will spread the word about how great the company is. Companies that continue to spam us with their ads are going to get a very bad reputation and the media companies that run them are going to lose their readers and viewers.

Internet Technology, Media, On Demand, People October 16, 2006 06:13 PM

 

daily  Saturday, March 25, 2006

Wired


CactusWired Magazine has been a pleasure to read for more than ten years (published in San Francisco, California since March 1993). Each issue that arrives becomes part of the "read" file for the next airplane ride. I find the magazine provocative and insightful. Increasingly over recent years it has become movie and game oriented and although I am not a gamer or video fan, it is good to stay on top of where things are going with the younger generation. (Note: I am told the average gamer is now more than 30 years old).

The current issue of Wired includes an interview (sponsored by Lexus) by Charlie Rose with Eric Schmidt (CEO at Google), Ivan Seidenberg (CEO at Verizon), Michael Eisner (CEO at Disney), and film director George Clooney. The piece was obviously an advertorial and contained a lot of self-serving comments, but nevertheless, I found it very interesting and prescient.

It was surprising that Clooney, Eisner, and Seidenberg mentioned the Internet more than Eric Schmidt did. It was not that long ago that Hollywood and Telco were in denial about the Net. Eisner talked about billions of people downloading movies in minutes and said that the industry would see a lot of "bubbles breaking" but that in 5-10 years the music, movie, and television industry would be "unbelievably strong". Clooney said he thinks people will still go to theatres because they are an "event" but the content will be 100% digital with movies instantly downloaded into 300 theaters across the country.

Eric Schmidt was very consistent with the Google vision to organize the world's information. He said that all their best ideas come from the "spend 20% of your time to work on whatever you want to" employment policy. He also said that only 1-2% of the U.S. half-trillion dollar advertising spending was on the Internet -- obviously leaving a lot of upside for Google. Seidenberg wants to wire the country with fiber optic cable to every home and offer tens of megabits for multiple HDTV's, telephony, and Internet service.

The good news for the rest of us, as long as the lobbyists don't get in the way, is that there is going to be a lot of competition in every aspect of what the interviewees discussed. The result should be faster speeds and lower prices. The bad news is that we may have to put up with old-fashioned shotgun style advertising for a while and meanwhile there are a lot of startup companies investing heavily in new advertising techniques to identify us, target us, and blast advertising to every form of communication that we engage. Fortunately, there are also companies working on methods to preserve our privacy and protect us from being harassed.

Internet Technology, Media March 25, 2006 12:47 AM

 

daily  Sunday, February 12, 2006

The MooBella Demo


People at a conferenceIt was such an exciting week at Demo that it is hard to summarize. There are many reviews of the conference on the web and you can find some of them at Kaboodle (one of the companies that debuted at Demo). There were sixty-eight companies showing off their latest and greatest -- the Demo site has the full list with links to the companies, so if you want to know what is hot take a look here and click the + sign next to Demo 2006 at the top right of the page.

The product least expected but perhaps most enjoyed by the 700+ attendees was the MooBella virtual ice cream vending machine. After attendees made touch-panel choices from up to 96 combinations of flavors and mix-ins, the machine mixed and instantly froze fresh ingredients to produce a delicious scoop of ice cream within 45 seconds. The only drawback I could see was that there was no chocolate. Apparently, that flavor (favorite of 20% of the market) poses special challenges due to the viscosity of cocoa powder.

There were a number of themes that emerged at DEMO. Collaboration was one. Chris Shipley said that 2006 will be the year of collaboration. Demos included virtual meeting platforms, tools that in effect allow people to act as librarians and share their findings with others, and tools for collaborative software development. Another theme was vertical search. Google and Yahoo! are great but highly specialized searches offer much better results. Examples shown included shopping, entertainment, software code, healthcare, and politics.

Mobile applications are still somewhat limited by tiny screens but innovative new ideas were shown that make cell phones more useful than ever. One company showed a phone being used as a personal trainer during exercise. It kept track of your pace and location and plotted results on the screen. Another small device was shown that allows complete control over the phone, music, and every aspect of things going on in the house.

Security solutions were shown to protect our identity, protect our networks, stop spam and viruses at the door, and diagnose Internet traffic and catch malware before it gets to our systems. Biometric technologies were shown to allow secure payment and authentication. I look forward to some of these technologies being used in healthcare.

Through two FutureScan panels I attempted to help the audience see the future of security and computational biology. On the security panel we discussed the general state of Internet security (not healthy) but more importantly some of the research that may lead to a healthier net. To me the most promising thing is PKI. I have written much about this here. The computational biology panel was mind-blowing for most of us. Systems biology models, redesigning proteins, and learning about our genetic history will affect all of our lives. There was a great deal of interest in The Genographic Project. (A dozen DNA kits were given to the audience -- you can get your own here). If you are interested in learning more about the human genome, the panelists recommended Genome by Matt Ridley. I am reading it now. We were all extremely fortunate to have had some of the world's leading experts share their thoughts on the panels. You can find links to all the panelists here.

The most asked question between Demo attendees at breaks and meals is "See anything interesting?". Chris Shipley, Executive Producer of the DEMO Conferences, introduced sixty-eight companies -- there was definitely something for everybody. I was not able to visit all the companies or hear all of their pitches, but at the end of this story I will mention eleven companies that I found most interesting -- "My Top Ten Picks"

Conferences, Healthcare, Internet Technology, Media, Mobile, Music, People, Personal Computing, Public Policy February 12, 2006 01:38 PM

 

daily  Monday, January 23, 2006

Music Blues


Musical recordsI have to admit confidence that it would happen -- more than $1 Billion in sales of digital music in 2005. This was triple the year before. People are willing to pay for music if it is offered to them in a contemporary way -- i.e. digital. What were the results of digital music alternatives for the year? According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the chairman and chief executive of the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, John Kennedy, said that global music retail revenue fell about 2 per cent last year. It was also reported that music piracy was flat. That tells me that if music overall was flat, piracy was flat, and digital music tripled, then "traditional" music is in decline. That should not be a surprise to anyone. If piracy is not the culprit (clearly there is still much of it going on, but not growing), then why are music sales flat? My theory is that the reason there is not enough digital music available is that it is not yet well "packaged" and promoted. Apple is doing a great job of marketing music as evidenced in part by the many Christmas stockings containing iTunes Music Store Cards this year. (I just used mine to buy 25 tracks of Concerti Virtuosi and also the Bruckner 8th Symphony). I continue to believe the core problem is attitude. The industry group calls itself the "International Federation of the Phonographic Industry". Does that give us a clue that they are not keeping up with the times?

P. S. My only problem with iTunes is inter-operability. See iTrike.

Media, Motorcycles, Music January 23, 2006 11:18 AM

 

daily  Saturday, January 7, 2006

Miscellany - 01-06-06


ToolboxJust back from sunny Florida. When we left Palm Beach Gardens on Thursday it was 84 degrees and blue skies. It was a bit cooler when we got to Palm Coast and St. Augustine Beach. There was construction everywhere -- condos, homes, malls, highways, and infrastructure. Seems like a "bubble" is a legitimate concern.

checkmarkThe sky was blue in Connecticut today too but the temperature was only in the high twenties. The Widder electric gloves and vest kept me warm for a short twelve-mile motorcycle ride. The wind chill made it well below freezing.

checkmarkThere is a lot of conference activity coming up in the next few months. I am looking forward to all of it but have a lot of preparation to get ready for the three panels I will be moderating -- one at SIIA and two at Demo. Stay tuned for more about them.

checkmark Word (no pun intended) is that Massachusetts is hanging tough with their decision to require the OpenDocument Format. It is shaping up to be a battle of Microsoft versus the people. It is not about Office and it is not about open source. It is about the ownership of documents -- do they belong to the person who created the document or do they belong to the application which created the document? That is the issue.

checkmark Opera Software continues to innovate in Web browser technologies. This past week they announced a partnership with Industria, a leading broadband communication solutions provider and IPTV systems integrator in Iceland. This is the tip of the "iceberg" that will accelerate the move toward the use of open Web technology in Television -- the word is already starting to sound old-fashioned.

checkmark Many more things in the blog queue to write about. Stay tuned.

Blogging, Conferences, Internet Technology, Media, Motorcycles, Travels January 7, 2006 04:28 PM

 

daily  Saturday, July 16, 2005

The Long Tail


GraphChris Anderson from Wired talked passionately at Supernova about how the Internet makes it possible to exploit the "niche" portion of the demand for products, services, and content. His theory is that there is more total demand -- revenue -- from a large number of little known products that there is from a small number of big "hits". He calls the curve that reflects this phenomenon "the long tail".

In particular, the future of entertainment -- books, songs, movies -- is at the "shallow end of the bitstream". All of us have unique likes and dislikes. One person's trash is another person's treasure. Prior to the Internet bringing us Amazon and Netflix, we had to be content with what was available in the "store" and the store would only carry something that had good odds of selling. The fact is that there is a lot out there that may not mean much to the masses but is exactly what someone somewhere is looking for.

My friend and colleague, Irving Wladawsky-Berger, recently found a personalized recommendation at Netflix for a movie called Blue, by a Polish director, Krzysztof Kieslowski. Irving said he had never heard of the movie or the director but the movie had a very high rating, member comments were positive, and professional reviewers that he trusts all highly recommended the movie. A mouse click later the DVD was on it's way to Irving and he soon enjoyed it greatly. It turns out the movie was part of a trilogy and he ended up ordering the other two movies also.

A slightly different phenomenon is happening with music. iTunes recommends music on a personalized basis but also provides "iMixes" of various artists and links to music collections that are favorites of music stars themselves. By following the trail from list to list you can get pretty far out on the long tail and find some highly unique music. None of them will sell millions but millions of people will find music that they really like. There will still be "mega-hits" but the world of creating and retailing is being turned upside down. The Long Tail is a really important story and I urge everyone to read it.

Related links
bullet
See Chris Anderson's "The Long Tail"
bullet Film category of Irving's blog

Conferences, Internet Technology, Media, Music July 16, 2005 08:24 PM

 

daily  Monday, February 9, 2004

What's In The News


NewspaperHow often have we heard or said "what's in the news?". We all might answer the question differently depending on what our particular source of news is. Some us depend on the radio (AM, FM, or XM), some on TV, and others on the Internet. Whatever our source of news might be, I think the bigger question is whether the interpretations of the news that we get are accurate and unbiased. Some of us believe what we read or hear and others are more skeptical. There is good reason for the latter. (read more)

Media February 9, 2004 10:33 PM

 

daily  Sunday, June 1, 2003

TiVo On A Roll


TiVo is on a roll with results for its latest quarter showing revenue of $28.5 million. The number of subscribers continued to soar with the total now over 700,000. That was a growth of 79,000 in the quarter. The numbers are still small but as more and more people get TiVo and tell their friends about it, the growth is accelerating. TiVo anticipates reaching the one million mark by the end of January. The only shortcoming to TiVo from my perspective is that it has no option to skip advertisements completely. The fast is nice but it is not precise; i.e. I usually find myself going to far or not far enough and then wasting time getting to the right spot. What would be *really* nice would be to be able to just select an option for *no* advertisements or even selectively picking those you don't want to see. Then you could start watching a news program at 6:15 PM instead of 6 PM and not miss any of the content. If you have already refinanced your mortgage and are satisfied with your stockbroker, why do you need to hear the mindless, monotonous, droning advertisements from Ditech.com and ScotTrade?


Media June 1, 2003 06:07 PM