The Future of the Internet

The following story was published in the April 2012 issue of  Sun and Surf Magazine

The Future of the Internet
By John R. Patrick

The future of the Internet in our lives is very positive but we are only about 10% of the way there. Of all the things that could be done online that would save us time and simplify our lives, only 10% of them are there. Travel and banking web sites are getting better, but we are still at the early stages of what is possible. Consider retail e-commerce. Although there has been continuous and steady growth of retail e-commerce, it still represents just 5% of total retail sales. Why isn’t it 25% or more? Much is written about that here at patrickWeb but the short version is that there are still a lot of lame web sites. “Click here for the location of our nearest dealer where you can visit” or “call to get a price on the product you just found” or “Click here to download this form, fill it out, and fax it to us”. It is no wonder that Amazon captured 28% of all online sales in the fourth quarter of 2011. One company out of 4 million retailers got more than a quarter of all the sales. Have you ever heard a friend complain about poor customer service at Amazon? They walk in the customer’s shoes and deliver a terrific experience. Most of the rest of the e-businesses in the world have a long way to go. And in the physical world, there are the ubiquitous clipboards at doctor offices where we take a pen and provide a lot of information that they already have.

The changes in Internet technology have been continuous for decades and there is no end in sight. For the past fifteen years, I have been writing about the evolution of the Internet by describing developments in seven key areas: Fast, Always On, Everywhere, Natural, Intelligent, Easy, and Trusted. In the following paragraphs, I will hit the highlights of some of the more important trends and developments.

Fast
Broadband in the U.S. is not a pretty story compared to other parts of the world. We are second after China in the number of broadband users, but 28th in the world in the number of broadband users as a percentage of our population. The problem is that there are too many lobbyists, and the FCC is a political organization. The new FCC head is a very smart guy with technology and business experience. He totally gets it. The only problem is that AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon have more lawyers than the FCC does. Meanwhile France is offering 100 megabit access for $90 per month and rolling out WiFi throughout the country. Thanks to the telco lobby, many states have banned the offering of WiFi by municipal entities. Every citizen in Greenland has Internet access. We have 31,000 post offices.

Always On
WiFi is part of the fabric of the world. The big shift is the streaming of data — not just tweets, but data from *things* — bridges, toll booths, traffic lights, buildings, cars, iPhones, Androids, handheld GPS devices, weather instruments, and health monitoring devices attached to people. The growth in creation of data is staggering. Of all the data in the world, 90% of it was created in the last two years. YouTube receives 60 hours of new video every hour – an hour every minute. Wikipedia has 4 million articles and 8,000 editors. Hospital physicians will soon be adjusting the drip rate on infusion pumps in the hospital from their office based on real-time data from the patient. WiFi-enabled infusion pumps will enable hospital administrators to know where the pumps are (they never have enough of them) and which ones need maintenance.

Everywhere
There are one billion computers (including tablets), one billion cars, 1.5 billion televisions, and 2 billion Internet users. Small numbers compared to cell phones — 5.2 billion paid subscribers. The Internet used to be where your PC is, but now the Internet is where you are.  Most of the cell phones are dumb but soon most of them will be smart and they will all have Internet access. The mobile web is unfolding and is taking part in creating data by streaming data to the Cloud and then consuming data by streaming it from the Cloud. When you take a picture on your iPhone, it goes into the photostream and from there to iCloud and from there to all of your other devices and, if you choose, to the devices of your friends and family.

Natural
Social networking has become fundamental to all aspects of our economy and society. Integration of social networking with a full range of web applications will evolve to become the primary means of finding jobs, finding employees, finding business partners, and collaborating on projects. The emerging issue is that many people, especially young ones, are a bit liberal with sharing their every movement — what they are eating, listening to, where they are headed, their current latitude and longitude, and where they slept last night. They are not thinking that some day they may run for office or interview for a job. A new protocol will emerge to enable people to “erase” things they placed on the Internet. The Europeans may legislate it. OpenSocial is an important new standard that will enable social media apps that work across all of the social media sites.

Intelligent
The Semantic Web is the next big turn of the crank for the evolution of the World Wide Web. Most web pages have links but do not have context. The words on the web page do not necessarily mean anything — but they could. For example, if a web page said “Join us for a concert by The Eagles at Kimmel Center in Philadelphia next Tuesday” that set of words could have a lot of context. Clicking on it could add the concert to your calendar, knowing what “next Tuesday” means. It would also know exactly where the Kimmel Center is and provide a map. The Eagles is a performing group that performs a particular genre and your music player would receive a list of suggestions of music they have recorded or links to live concerts under way at the moment and make recommendations about their music to your friends. This is the tip of the iceberg. The semantic web will lead us to a point where most of the interactions of web pages will be between computers, not between computers and people. The biggest growth of intelligence is occurring in the field of analytics. Exabytes of data are being stored. A byte is 8 bits (a bit is a zero or a 1) and represents one character. An exabyte is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes! Business Intelligence and analytics are poised to enable new insight into the mounds of data – “Big Data” — that are being accumulated. Analytics will enable businesses to make sense of the explosion of data, develop digital models of their business, and continuously adapt it to what is going on. IBM’s Watson successfully challenged humans on the Jeopardy Show, but what is more interesting is the ability for a primary care physician to call and get a recommendation based on patient symptoms and measurements they describe to Watson. Within a couple of seconds Watson technology will be able to review all available medical information in the world and make a useful suggestion.

Easy
Technology is not the easiest thing at times. There are many dimensions to “easy” but one good example is the Nintendo Wii. At a local senior center, members find the Wii to be their exercise coach. It is not just for kids! The iPhone and iPad have shown how easy it can be to get applications on a handheld computer. Amazon has done the same with the Kindle. Most companies still don’t get the idea that the Internet is about power to the people. If you can’t make it simple, people won’t buy it. Cloud computing has become the mainstay for me and for millions. The ease, convenience, and reliability of the Cloud is compelling. Add Dropbox to your laptop and your iPad and your iPhone and you have a completely replicated set of data – all of your data at your disposal wherever you are and with whatever device you may be using. How about the future of TV? Three of the most common remotes — BlueRay, Cable box, and TV — include 151 buttons. Even a savvy child could not possibly master this impossible user interface. Boxee TV has produced a good model of the future of TV – think of it like TV Guide on the web — but I suspect that an upcoming Apple TV will be what finally provides the needed regime change.

Trusted
This is the big one. Can we trust the Internet? Security technology is available to achieve much higher levels of security than is presently deployed both at enterprise and consumer levels. It is a constant battle and requires significant budgets and a lot of talented people to maintain the needed security. The equally important issue is privacy. The good news is that there are some good technology solutions available to help us control access to our Internet habits. The bad news is that politicians have gotten interested in the subject. Banks have our personal information and they are using it. Healthcare insurers have more information about our health than our doctors do. Nevertheless, there is much to be optimistic about when it comes to electronic medical records. Perhaps 25% of doctors and hospitals use them but they are not easily interchangeable and accessible. This will change over the next few years as the government adds dollar incentives to make it happen. The result will be better quality of care, better outcomes, and fewer errors. And, fewer clipboards.

In January, I gave a talk about the Future of the Internet and Healthcare at the SIIA Conference in New York. The slides and a video of the presentation can be found here.

About the author

John R. Patrick (john@patrickweb.com) is president of Attitude LLC and former vice president of Internet technology at IBM. Mr. Patrick was a founding member of the World Wide Web Consortium at MIT in 1994 and of the Global Internet Project. He is a fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers and a member of the American College of Healthcare Executives.  He is a director of Knovel Corporation, WebMediaBrands, Inc., and Western Connecticut Health Network. He is the author of Net Attitude: What It Is, How to Get It, and Why Your Company Can’t Survive Without It (Perseus, 2001).

About SUN and SURF

SUN and SURF Magazine is published quarterly and mailed to all property owners in Hammock Dunes in Palm Coast, Florida. The magazine currently has a circulation of approximately 1,000.

Tags: analytics, big data, cardionet, corventis, IBM, internet, Internet Technology, ipad, patientslikeme, social media, telemonitoring

Speech at SIIA

It was a privilege to be a speaker at the Software & Information Industry Association (SIIA) conference in New York on January 25. The subject of the speech was The Future of the Internet but I included an emphasis on impact to healthcare and publishing. The conference was attended by executives from the publishing and software industries. I do not know why the video was captured in five segments, but until I get a consolidated version, the links are below. The slides were on my iPad and the video doesn’t show the screen the audience was looking at. If you want to see the slides, they are here.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

Tags: future, health, Healthcare, hospital, internet, john patrick, medicine, music, publisher, siia, technology

Genesys XVIII

The 18th Annual Genesys Partners Venture Dinner — Gen XVIII– Monday night at the Union League Club in New York attracted more than 100 venture capitalists, investors, journalists, entrepreneurs, and industry executives. As always, Jim Kollegger — CEO of Genesys Partners and one of the pioneers of the information industry — was an elegant master of ceremonies. He introduced the various sponsors, next day panelists for the SIIA Conference, several startup CEO’s, and a few of us who have been around the block a few times, each to make some comments.

Like a broken record, I offered the normal upbeat view of the future of the Internet but prefaced my remarks by asserting that we are only 10% of the way there. In other words, of all the things that could be done on the Internet that would save us time and make our lives better, only 10% of them are there. It may sound low but consider retail e-commerce. Although there has been continuous and steady growth of retail e-commerce it still represents just 4% of total retail (as of the end of October). Why isn’t it 25% or more? Much is written about that here at patrickWeb but the short version is that there are still a lot of lame web sites. “Click here for the location of our nearest dealer where you can visit” or “call to buy the product you just found” or “Click here to download this form and fax it to us”. And of course there are the ubiquitous clipboards at doctor offices where we take a pen and provide a lot of information information that they already have.

I described one man’s view of the evolution of the Internet including the seven characteristics below. This parsed way of looking at the Internet has served me well for quite a few years. The things going on under each area continuously change and Jim asks me once a year to do a thumbnail sketch of my latest thinking.

Fast
Broadband in the U.S. is not a pretty story compared to other parts of the world. We are second after China in number of broadband users, but 28th in the world in number of broadband users as a percentage of our population. The problem is that there are too many lobbyists and the FCC is a political organization. The new FCC head is a very smart guy with venture and business experience. He totally gets it. The only problem is that AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon have more lawyers than he does. Meanwhile France is offering 100 megabit access for $90 per month and WiFi throughout the country. Thanks to the telco lobby, many states have banned the offering of WiFi by municipal entities. Every citizen in Greenland has Internet access. We have 31,000 post offices.

Always On

WiFi is part of the fabric of the world. The big shift is streaming of data — not just tweets, but data from *things*. Bridges, toll booths, traffic lights, buildings, cars, and health monitoring devices attached to people. Hospital physicians will soon be adjusting the drip rate on infusion pumps in the hospital from their office based on real-time data from the patient. The WiFi infusion pumps enable hospital administrators to know where the pumps are (they never have enough of them) and which ones need maintenance. The creation of data is staggering. Of all the data in the world, 90% of it was created in the last two years. YouTube receives 60 hours of new video every hour. Wikipedia has 4 million articles and 8,000 editors.

Everywhere
There are one billion computers (including tablets), one billion cars, 1.5 billion televisions, and 2 billion Internet users. Small numbers compared to cell phones — 5.2 billion paid subscribers. The Internet used to be where your PC is, now it is where you are.  Most of the cell phones are dumb but soon most of them will be smart and they will all have Internet access. The mobile web is unfolding and is taking part in creating data in addition to consuming it through streaming. When you take a picture on your iPhone, it goes into the photostream and from there to iCloud and from there to all of your other devices.  

Natural
Social networking has become fundamental to all aspects of our economy and society. Integration of social networking with a full range of web applications will evolve to become the primary means of collaboration. The emerging issue is that many people are a bit liberal with sharing their every movement — what they are eating, listening to, where they are headed, their current latitude and longitude, and where they slept last night. They are not thinking that some day they may run for office or interview for a job. OpenSocial is an important new standard that will enable social media apps that work across all of the social media sites. The Europeans may legislate it, but regardless, a capability is needed to be able to remove things from the social media.

Intelligent
The Semantic Web is the next big turn of the crank but the crank is moving slowly. Most web pages have links but do not have context. In other words the words on the page do not necessarily mean anything — but they could. If a web page said “Join us for a concert by The Eagles at Kimmel Center in Philadelphia next Tuesday” that set of words could have a lot of context. Clicking on it could add the concert to your calendar, knowing what “next Tuesday” means. It would also know exactly where the Kimmel Center is and that The Eagles is a performing group that performs a particular genre and your music player would receive a list of suggestions of music they have recorded or links to live concerts under way at the moment. This is the tip of the iceberg. The semantic web will lead us to a point where most of the interactions of web pages will be between computers not between computers and people. The biggest growth of intelligence is occurring in the field of analytics. Exabytes of data are being stored. Analytics will enable businesses to make sense of it, model their business and continuously adapt to what is going on. IBM’s Watson took on humans on the Jeopardy Show, but what is more interesting is the ability for a primary care physician to call and get a recomendation based on patient data they describe to Watson. Within a couple of seconds Watson will be able to review all medical information in the world and make a useful suggestion. Business Intelligence and analytics are poised to enable new insight into the mounds of data that are being accumulated.

Easy
Technology isn’t the easiest thing at times. There are many dimensions to “easy” but one good example is the Nintendo Wii. At a local senior center, members find the Wii to be their exercise coach. It is not just for kids! The iPhone and iPad have shown how easy it can be to get applications on a handheld computer. Amazon has done the same with the Kindle. Most companies still don’t get the idea that the Internet is about power to the people. If you can’t make it simple, people won’t buy it. Cloud computing has become the mainstay for me and for millions. The convenience and reliability of the clouds is compelling. Add Dropbox and you have a completely replicated set of data, wherever you are and with whatever device you may be using. How about TV? Three remotes — BlueRay, Cable box, and TV — include 151 buttons. Even a savvy child could not possibly master this impossible user interface. Boxee TV has produced a good model of the future of TV, but I suspect that an upcoming Apple TV will be what finally provides the needed regime change.

Trusted
This is the big one. Will we trust the Internet? Security technology is available to achieve much higher levels of security than presently deployed both at enterprise and consumer levels. It is a constant battle and requires significant budgets and a lot of talented people to maintain the needed security. The bigger issue will be privacy. (Stay tuned for the Firefox “do not track” feature). Banks have our personal information and they are using it. Healthcare insurers have more information about our health than our doctors do. Nevertheless, there is much to be optimistic about when it comes to electronic medical records. Perhaps 25% of doctors and hospitals use them but they are not easily interchangeable and accessible. This will change over the next few years as the government adds dollar incentives to make it happen. The result will be better quality of care, better outcomes, and fewer errors. And, fewer clipboards.

On Wednesday I gave a talk about the Future of the Internet and Healthcare at the SIIA Conference. The presentation can be found here.

Other patrickWeb conference related stories

Tags: broadband, fcc, future, health, health care, Healthcare, IBM, internet, ipad, iPhone, jeopardy, john patrick, Mobile, opera, siia, social media, supercomputer, union league, WiFi

Why You Should Embrace Your Company’s Heretics

CNNMoney’s Fortune published a story last week called Why You Should Embrace Your Company’s Heretics. The story was written by Polly LaBarre. I have not talked to Polly for ten years but we did attended a number of the same conferences back then. This new story described my evangelism of the Internet and she said some complimentary things. The story is accurate, but I never thought of myself as a heretic. One fellow board member who read the story sent me a note saying he thought heretics were burned at the stake. Back in 2006, Polly and Bill Taylor, founding editor of Fast Company Magazine, wrote a book called Mavericks at Work where they described 50 “mavericks”. I was one of them, but had not yet been promoted or demoted (not sure which it would be) to “heretic”. I was labeled with the term “rebel” by Gary Hamel in his Waking Up IBM: How a Gang of Unlikely Rebels Transformed Big Blue that appeared in the Harvard Business Review in April 2001. A few months before that, Fast Company magazine published an interview I did with Polly where we talked about technology futures (see Think Ahead: John Patrick). The only heretic I can think of is ”Homer the Heretic” — an episode of The Simpsons‘, which originally aired in 1992.

Tags: CNNMoney, Fast Company, Fortune, Fortune Magazine, Harvard Business Review, heretic, IBM, john patrick

DEMO in Santa Clara – 2011

Demo has always been my favorite conference, and this past week in Santa Clara proved valuable once again. I believe this was the twenty-first year I have attended Demo. The Demo conference allows entrepreneurs to show off new gadgets, software, hardware and business ideas and enables the press, analysts, investors, key influencers and technology enthusiasts to assess what they see. The product introductions that take place reveal key technology trends over the coming 12 to 18 months. There were excellent speakers, as always. Take a look at the list.

Eighty companies were launched in two days. I view Demo as a barometer of what lies ahead and each year I comment not just on the companies but on the key trends I observed. Last year it was mobile, social media, and cloud. This year it was mobile, cloud, social media, and HTML5. There are now 5 billion cell phones in use around the world. In the U.S., 96% of people have one, and half of them are now smartphones. That is a big shift and it validates that the moible Internet is here. Cloud computing was as clear as a bell. Nobody wants to buy an application that requires having a server, as has been required in the past. Everything is in the cloud. Dropbox continues to be the best way to get an understanding of what cloud means. If you don’t have Dropbox yet, I highly recommend it. Social media is here to stay and most of the startups were offering some new way to exploit it — collaborative shopping and sharing content continue to loom large. The biggest shift is HTML5. I try to keep technical jargon out of patrickWeb, so sorry for the technical term. HTML is what makes the Web work. It is a protocol that makes Web pages accessible and useful. What is new is that HTML5 takes the Web to a much higher level than before. It means that a Web page can now be much more intelligent and, most importantly, the page can be truly cross-platform. That means that a page can be rendered on your PC, Mac, iPhone, Android, Tv, or anything that uses a standards-based browser. It is going to revolutionize the Web. To get a taste of this, get the Amazon Cloud Reader. HTML5 also means that–once fully adopted–you will never see a message that says “You need the latest version of Flash” or “You need the latest Real player” or “You need the latest Windows Media Player”. Audio and video will be able to be embedded in any page and enjoyed on any device. I love it!

Only six of the 80 companies were of special interest to me, although all of them were interesting. Three of them were related to healthcare. Here is my list — the links from them will tell you more. You can get a complete rundown on all 80 at the Demo Alumni Page.

LumoBack has a bandaid-like patch that you put on your back and it sends data to your iPhone about your posture.
Oh my meds provides a way to keep a track of a lot of meds in one convenient place–even if they were fulfilled at multiple pharmacies–and provides a lot of useful information about the medications.
SenseAide monitors what is going on at the residence of a senior. If the door has not opened for a long period of time or there is a fall, a call to a wall-mounted video phone is placed and automatically answered so a caregiver can ask if everything is ok.
Iconfinder has a slick model for selecting an image for use in your blog or website.
Upverter is a cloud-based electronic design tool. It breaks a lot of new ground and it is quite impressive what it can do without any desktop software.
Zirtu Virtual desktop takes virtualization to a new level. It does not virtualize the operating system — just all the desktop apps. It provides a virtual desktop even if the network connection is lost.

See the rest at demo.com, or better yet, head out to Silicon Valley in April for DemoSpring2012 and see the next batch of startups.

Tags: ethanol, find a doctor, health care, Healthcare, mac, vmware, windows

OCLC in Seattle

It is a privilege to be able to participate and contribute to various boards.  It is also a way to learn new things, meet interesting people, and gain new perspectives. That has certainly been the case since I joined the board of OCLC. The board held a special meeting in Seattle this month. I got there a day early to meet some relatives in the area, one of which just started a new career with Amazon. More on that another time. The early arrival also made it possible to visit the 1962 World’s Fair Space Needle. I can not resist commenting on some of the engineering aspects of the futuristic Needle. The underground foundation was poured into a hole 30 feet deep and 120 feet across and it took 467 cement trucks an entire day to fill it. The foundation weighs as much as the Space Needle itself  and provide sa center of gravity just above ground. The revolving restaurant was balanced so perfectly that it can rotate with a one horsepower electric motor. The 605-foot tall Needle has elevators that travel 10 mph, 14 feet per second, 800 feet per minute, or as fast as a raindrop falls to earth. A snowflake falls at 3 mph, so when you go up during a snowstorm it appears to be snowing up. The Needle is built to withstand a 200 mph wind and in 2001 it easily withstood an earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale.

The OCLC board of trustees and CEO Jay Jordan spent all day Sunday in committee meetings and then Monday in the board meeting. I always learn a lot at OCLC meetings. Fifteen years ago some pundits — myself not included — were saying that libraries were history — as in toast — they were not long for the emerging digital world. Been to a local or college library lately? They are full of people and many are expanding their facilities. Library use has doubled over the past decade. What happened to the digital “vision”? It turns out that the digital and physical can get along together quite well and OCLC is playing a key role in helping libraries adapt to the changes ahead.

Since OCLC announced it was making its cloud-based library management services available to early adopters just 10 months ago, 32 libraries have committed to using OCLC Web-scale Management Services (WMS), the Web-based cooperative library management tools for meta-data management, acquisitions, circulation, license management and work-flow improvement. The early-adopter phase has now ended, and July 1 will mark general release of these innovative cloud-based services. The big picture idea behind WMS is to offer member libraries a single unified solution to help streamline routine tasks—like acquisitions and circulation. By moving these functions to the Web, libraries are able to share infrastructure costs and resources, as well as collaborate in ways that free them from the restrictions of local hardware and software.

On our final day in Seattle, we were fortunate to have a tour of Microsoft Research. Lee Dirks, director of Education & Scholarly Communication in Microsoft’s External Research division graciously hosted our visit. Lee was Microsoft’s archivist from 1996-1999 and before that was Preservation Services Manager at OCLC from 1995-96. Now that I am a student again, I found the academic search project Lee’s team is working on to be quite interesting. Academic Search is a free engine developed by Microsoft Research Asia to help users quickly find information about academic researchers and their activities. It is also a test-bed for their object-level vertical search research. With Academic Search, you can find top researchers, their papers, conferences, journals, and even relationships between researchers who may be co-authoring papers.

OCLC Homepage
WorldCat

Tags: board of directors, board of trustees, libraries, library, microsoft, microsoft research, oclc, seattle, space needle, wms, worldcat

Conversational Marketing Summit – 2011

Attending conferences is the best way I know of to stay on the edge of what is happening in the world. Reading content on the Web and exchanging messages is vital but there is no substitute for attending a few conferences per year where you can talk to people at meals and breaks plus interact with sponsors and speakers. This was my second year to attend the CM Summit, a conference run by John Battelle. John has a long history in journalism and the media industry and is founder and chairman of Federated Media, an Internet advertising company which appears to be prospering. John brought together a good set of sponsors and 32 excellent speakers.  The conference included news and views from some of the industry leaders in digital marketing. The two days included thought provoking case studies, insights, and conversations with major brand advertisers, agencies, and digital media companies.

The conference started bright and early Monday morning in the Hudson Theatre at the Millennium Broadway Hotel in Manhattan.  A full stream of the confeence is available here, but I will touch on a few highlights — mostly things I tweeted about (@johnrpatrick) from the iPad during the conference. Conversational marketing is all about a dialog between consumer, marketer, and publisher.  You could also say it is the new advertising model.  Major brands like American Express, P&G, Sony, Visa, and General Motors all talked about how they are morphing from traditional advertising to developing digital conversations between their brands and consumers via the social media. You could say it is a matter of survival. Laura Desmond, CEO of Starcom Mediavest, a multi-billion agency summed it up by saying that “business is not what it was”. She talked about how advertisers are more willing to consider new channels such as content, conversations, and real-time communications between a consumer and a brand. “Everyone will have an IP address”, is the advertiser’s way of saying that they want to connect directly with individual consumers. A lot of the presentations had to do with targetting. Advertisers really want to send a custom advertisement directly to our mobile phones based on the then circumstances of you and their products. I did not hear one of the presenters question whether consumers are happy about that. The privacy issue is getting a lot of attention, as it should. The new phrase is online behavioral advertising (OBA), and a new icon to signify OBA on compliant web sites will provide a link to a page to learn who is targeting you and where data about you is collected. It will also show your cookies and what they contain and enable you to opt out. People want transparent brands that reveal their intentions and actions. OBA will help make that happen.

Rob Cicone from AMEX said that 44% of small businesses use Facebook and 15% use LinkedIn. Your Buzz is a new Amex tool to help small biz manage their presence across all the major social networking tools. Their goal with the free service is to build a relationship with the small business that will eventually lead to the business accepting the Amex card. David Karp, Founder of tumblr, talked about how they have built a place to post things, customize your web page, and build a community. They claim to be the 26th largest web site with 7 billion pageviews per month, 80 million unique visitors per month, and 45,000 new users per day. Facebook has no guarantee to be the biggest and best social media in perpetuity.

A Finnish company called GetJar has an app store for mobile. They said the app industry is $30-50 billion with 50 billion app downloads projected for 2012 and said apps are media, not content. Not sure that is a significant distinction. I do agree with them that apps are in the early stage; like websites 15 years ago. With Apple’s new Lion and iOS 5, they are sure to get the Lion’s share. Adam Bain from Twitter discussed the new deep integration of Twitter with iOS 5, which means you can tweet from within an app. Could be profound. Hope it is not an exclusive arrangement. I have always thought of Twitter as a protocol for the Internet.

Pepsi talked about real-time marketing. Lady gaga walking down street with a Pepsi. Someone at Pepsi notices and minutes later, tens of millns of people see an ad based on a Pepsi tweet. I thought most significant was that Pepsi and GM and the other big brands were represented by young “with it” marketing execs. I am sure they are not the “chief” marketing officers. Some had weird titles like global director of brand awareness and innovation. A mouthful but important that the major companies are trying hard to figure out how to capitalize on the new social media, because it is really big. Guy from Yahoo! wav very bullish. Head of sales for Facebook said that they reach more people everyday than American Idol. They are running 30 billion status updates per year.

The highlight of the conference was William James Adams, Jr.,  better known by his stage name will.i.am or as  a member of the hip hop group The Black Eyed Peas. He had an uncanny saavy about marketing and innovation. I was greatly impressed with his focus on philanthropy and helping inner city kids with education and housing.

Tags: advertising, battelle, black eyed peas, brand, cm summit, conference, database of intentions, digital media, facebook, google, hudson theatre, marketing, social, social media, social networks, tumblr, twitter, will.i.am, yahoo

Pike’s Peak

It was a second time to stay at The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Words can not describe this incredible hotel. The occasion was to give a speech at an event that CCC Information Services held for a grouop of its customers. CCC is a private company that provides its customers with collision repair and insurance estimating software solutions, analytical tools and comprehensive data. Their focus is on integrated claims management to  optimize efficiency throughout the claims management supply chain, facilitating communication among approximately 21,000 auto body collision repair facilities, 350 insurance companies and a range of other industry participants. In my talk about the Future of the Internet, I discussed the fast, always on, everywhere, natural, intelligent, easy, and trusted characteristics of the Internet. As usual, I highlighted my optimistic view about cloud computing. CCC is a real believer and pioneer in this area. See a point of view from CCC’s Ron Nelson called Life in the Cloud.

In addition to the day being the kickoff for CCC’s conference, it was also the graduation day for 1,000 cadets at the Air Force Academy, and the 43rd anniversary for my wife and me. We took advantage of being in Colorado Springs by taking a ride on the Pikes Peak Cog Railway. The Manitou & Pike’s Peak Railway Company was founded and track construction began in 1889. The first cog railway was built in New Hampshire in 1869, but Switzerland is where most cog railways are located. The Manitou and Pikes Peak Railway, however, is the highest rack railway in the world as well as the highest railway in North America and the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum grade the train can handle is 25% and it was great to experience it. The train runs all year round but on some occassions, including last week for us, there is too much snow to get to the top. We made it to 12,400 feet and the views were spectacular.

Tags: air force academy, Broadmoor, ccc, cloud, cloud computing, cog, cog railway, colorado, colorado springs, rack railway

Management of Change

The Homestead in Hot Springs, Virginia

It would have been a beautiful sight to see the mountain ridges and terrain in Virgainia but the flight into Inalls Field was on a dreary, cloudy, drizzling evening. The runway was 5,600 feet long but it was also 4,000 feet above sea level; the thinner air making it effectively quite a bit shorter. A short van ride through the winding mountain ridge roads brough us to The Homestead in Hot Springs, Virginia to the Management of Change Conference 2011.

The American Council for Technology (ACT) – Industry Advisory Council (IAC) is a non-profit, public-private partnership dedicated to improving government through the application of information technology.  ACT-IAC provides an objective, ethical and trusted forum where government and industry  exchange information and collaborate on technology issues in the public sector.  It was a privilege for me to be the opening speaker prior to the participants spending several days of intense discussions and collaboration. I talked about the future of the Internet and how healthcare is being positively impacted by the evolution of the Internet. My slides (presented using Keynote from the iPad2) can be found in the presentations section of patrickWeb. The flight back was clear and smooth at 38,000 feet but the descent into Westchester County Airport took us all the way down to decision height before we could see any lights.

Tags: CIO, decision height, Healthcare, healthcare it, homestead, hot springs, Internet Technology, ipad, IT, westchester county airport

Ridgefield Men’s Club

The Ridgefield Men’s Club, founded in 1984, is a group of retired or near-retired men from varied careers in business and the professions. Some day, when I grow up, I hope to be a member. At this stage I am neither retired nor near-retired. The waiting list is 3-4 years long, so perhaps when I get to be 70 (and still e-tired), I can become a member. The club states its purpose is to provide and promote fellowship. They offer activities in a dozen or more groups such as bridge, computers, personal finance, fishing, wood carving, and hiking. The Club provides a way for members to maintain old friendships and make new ones, enjoy a cup of coffee on meeting days, hear a good speaker, and plan activities together. Last month, I had the privilege to give a talk about the Internet at a Club meeting, and below is a review that followed in the Club newsletter.

Oracle of the Internet – John Patrick

Our club has been favored over the years by hardworking, talented and well-informed Program Managers who consistently have brought us outstanding speakers. We have had a key representative of the Irish Republic describe, from an inside perspective, the momentous “Good Friday” accords, the forensic archaeologist who just completed a detailed study of Hitler’s demise, the Principle Investigator of NASA’s team of scientists charged with analysis of a comet collision with Jupiter and now the man who’s name is synonymous with ‘Visionary of the Future of the Internet’. He is John Patrick a Ridgefielder and friend of the club. After 38 years at IBM in a range of assignments including VP of Internet Technology, John is currently President of Attitude LLC and a world renowned figure in the field.

John first took us on a tour of his grasp of where the net is now in its potential for further fundamental development. He followed this by a survey of some of its basic characteristics and their likely directions for additional blossoming. In the same inimitable fashion as we have seen him exhibit  before , he then captured the key features of this complex maze in a set of 8 simple words and phrases viz. Fast, Always on, Everywhere, Natural, iPad Heaven, Intelligence, Easy and Trusted. As an awed listener I cannot hope to relate all the fascinating aspects of each as he so glibly rolled on in his relaxed but nevertheless clearly focused talk. I would like to touch on some of the highlights that struck me.

In thinking about all these other aspects of the net it’s important to keep in mind John’s overview of where we are right now. Against the background of the phenomenal growth and penetration into so many aspects of our lives in such a short time, John categorizes the age of internet applications and its scope as entering adolescence! (What will this all come to when it matures?)

Before getting any further into details though, there was an overarching theme that John wove through the whole presentation and that was the main driver he sees on the future highway of Internet development will be … Healthcare. Many of the examples that he used for instance are related to that application. And he did not hesitate to repeat it quite frequently. The importance he associates with the subject is supported by his mention in passing that he himself is studying on-line of course, medical technology.

The role of the classic PC as the prime entryway to the Internet is rapidly coming to its end. The net is now at your fingertips if you so choose. To us old guys, it’s reminiscent of the way Dick Tracy had his concept of the world of information on his wrist in the cartoonist label of “Wrist Radio”

At the conclusion of his fascinating presentation, John graciously encouraged questions from the very attentive audience. Questions ranged over a broad spectrum of aspects including privacy issues, marketing strategies, investment opportunities, etc. Only the exigencies of allocated time brought this session to a conclusion marked by a very warm and prolonged round of applause.

Tags: Internet Technology, john patrick, Ridgefield, Ridgefield Men's Club